I get calls from reporters asking me why I think the odds dropped last night for the 93rd Academy Awards. I see a lot of theories circulating. I know what Film Twitter is thinking. I know what people secretly think but are afraid to say it. I know the different theories and which of them are ‘safe’ to say out loud and which are not. I know the history of the Oscars and I know the odds have been dropping steadily for the past few years. I also know that movie critics don’t really care about ratings. And that they love the Oscars the same way Oscar voters – like a kind of magic mirror to reflect the people they want to be rather than the people they really are.

I also know that there is another virus that goes around left and almost every corner on the left. And it is, quite simply, fear. Right now the left is living in fear of itself. It’s a fear that one of them might be an undesirable, an “SP” – someone who might say a bad thing or make a bad choice or wear the wrong clothes or abuse a pronoun and c. ‘is all. Dunzo. This kind of fearful climate makes it very difficult to tackle the hard truths.

And we need hard truths more than ever.

As long as the media feeds off Twitter, they will only report a finite news loop. Imagine you are in a bubble. Anything you say out loud can only touch the surface of the bubble and bounce again so that everything stays inside the bubble and never really comes out. Another great example of this is the wonderful 1984 book by George Orwell in which you have a small segment of people whose likes, thoughts, beliefs, and ideas are all concentrated inside the Big Brother bubble. This means that they decide which words should just be deleted. More books, more freedom of thought, etc. But the funny thing is that there is a much larger circle outside the bubble and this is where the proletarians live and do a lot of the grumpy work. The people inside Oceana do not see the Proles as truly human and therefore worthy of their strict doctrine. They just pretend they don’t exist.

So why is all of this important? Well, to understand Oscar odds, you need to understand the bubble and what lies outside. Admittedly, the visualization of the network for major events is generally declining. Admittedly, the pandemic has mostly brought the industry to its knees and the scores for all awards have plummeted. If the Oscars continue as they do, their ratings each year will be much closer to what they got this year and, in fact, to get even higher ratings they will need to make some big changes. .

What are these changes? Well, they need to stop using the Oscars as a religious revival meeting where they state their purpose, repeatedly punish themselves, confess their sins, and ask for forgiveness. There is a small group of people who love to be preached. They are mostly wealthy, mostly white people, with few real goals and usually no religion. They need a reason to feel worthy of their own life. But most people? Almost anyone? Black, white, rich, poor, left, right, old, young? They don’t like to be preached by celebrities. Very few of them have earned the right to preach.

There aren’t many people who can tolerate even a minute of political speech from wealthy celebrities. The only type of monologue that should never be allowed at the Oscars again is Ricky Gervais’ Globes monologue. And in fact, they should beg Ricky Gervais to host the Oscars next time. Let Twitter make an adjustment and then they would have good grades. I promise you. Hire Ricky Gervais and you will see a massive increase in ratings. Or rent the Rock. Or Tyler Perry. Anyone who has the big picture and has the courage to criticize people who really need a joke or two told the hard way. Seriously. This is what everyone needs. All the time.

Watch this monologue. Then watch again. It is one of the most watched videos on Youtube. His jokes are offensive, offbeat and obscene. But they are funny.

The Oscars take themselves too seriously. The films are too serious. The ceremonies are too serious. Perhaps we could start by not taking ourselves too seriously. We have a country to rebuild and, apparently, a film industry.

Ratings will continue to drop as long as the Oscars remain as insular and elite as the Tonys. If they slack off, if people like me stop micromanaging them, if Twitter stops berating all the choices they make and threatening to displease or fire people – if we stop controlling art and stop beating it up. controlling each other’s thoughts and desires – maybe we can rekindle the Oscars. . It’s a big job. We have to start somewhere.

The Oscars currently have two choices. Just ditch the idea of ​​leaderboards and embrace their exclusivity completely, move on to streaming. Or stop trying to please and pander to the beehive spirit on Twitter who, frankly, will be as angry with a Pepsi ad as they are with a political election. Just follow what you can do – find the money. To entertain. Get people to watch something fun, and ask those who come to the awards to take the sermon off for a night. There is nothing they are going to say that will make any difference. They preach 100% to the choir and now they’re even losing the choir.

There’s no getting around the fact that the pandemic has prevented films from garnering box office buzz or traction. No one could even go to the movies. But as we come out of that phase and move on to the next, we may be aware of movies that might not be what the Spirit Awards would call awesome, but nonetheless movie of the year, movies of the year, and movies. movies like the Proles. Great movies. What my friend David Carr called the MOVIE movies. Movies like News of the World, quite frankly, even movies like Greenland. Like a broken record, I keep talking about it and I hope that one day it stays.

Here are the notes that I have adapted for 2021.