Voting for the Emmys begins next week, ending all pop-up promotional installations (if Netflix needs a place to hide that creepy robot doll, there’s room in my backyard) and giving back a little of reason to the conscientious members of the television academy who have been diligently watching, watching, and watching (and probably never quite finishing) the hundreds of eligible shows vying for their attention.

What series will emerge when Emmy nominations are announced on July 12? Here’s how the races are going at this critical stage.

DRAMA SERIES PREDICTIONS

“You Better Call Saul”
“Ozarks”
“Break”
“Squid Game”
“Stranger Things”
“Succession”
“It’s us”
“Yellow Stone”

Nominated last year, ineligible this year: “The Boys,” “The Crown,” “The Handmaid’s Tale,” and “The Mandalorian” will eventually return, but their new seasons come too late for the 2022 Emmys. “Lovecraft Country” was canceled; “Laying” finished.

Best New Show Probably Won’t Be Nominated: The headline accompanying the review of this deeply moving drama by Times television critic Robert Lloyd read, “Apple’s Superb ‘Pachinko’ Is So Good It Makes The Competition Outrageous.” that pretty much sums it up. The question, as always, but more than ever in this fragmented age of streaming: have enough voters watched it? If you were starting this radical and stunningly beautiful series, I don’t see how you wouldn’t. There was not a moment wasted in the narration. But I fear its scope may have intimidated some voters. I hope I’m wrong.

Rejection of the finalist: In the meantime, I know plenty of people who have ventured into the dark forest of “yellow vests”, some of whom vote for the Emmys. Even five months after its finale, the gritty images of the show’s opening credits still haunt my dreams and have all but deterred me from camping for the rest of my life. Has there ever been a better show about teenage girls? (Perhaps the too-early “My So-Called Life” party?) Is there a better cast of dramatic actors outside of the group playing the adult and teenage versions of these traumatized characters? (“Succession”? Sure. But other than that…) So, yeah, “Yellowjackets” deserves a place at the table, but there’s probably too many trademark series for there to be room for. for all worthy newcomers. Again: I hope I’m wrong.

Best Serial Show: Obviously, not the excruciating final hour of “Killing Eve,” which offended just about everyone, including author Luke Jennings, whose “Codename Villanelle” trilogy inspired the series. And not “Ozark,” though its stark emptiness was very much in line with what has made this nihilistic show so off-putting in recent seasons. No, the honor goes to “This Is Us,” which will likely earn a Farewell Series nomination for the satisfying way it brought its emotional roller coaster ride back to the station with a reflective ending that made us cry. (of course) but also incited allows us to make a private inventory of the “little moments” that we collect during our lives.

Too big to ignore: “Yellowstone” earned exactly one Emmy nomination for its first three seasons – production design for a contemporary narrative program. (He lost.) But like “Dallas,” another prime-time soap opera that was widely rejected by voters until it became a phenomenon, “Yellowstone” became an obsession for its larger audience. aged, spawning a single prequel (“1883”) and a sequel to that prequel (tentatively titled “1932”) which will star Helen Mirren and Harrison Ford. The fourth season of “Yellowstone” was not the best. But it leaned into Kelly Reilly (who deserves more than her own nomination), cementing Beth Dutton as TV badass for the ages.

COMEDY SERIES PREDICTIONS

“Abbott Elementary School”
“The After Party”
“Atlanta”
“Barry”
“Hacks”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Ted Lasso”

Nominated last year, ineligible this year: Of the eight nominees for 2021, only “The Kominsky Method” left the building.

Best New Show Probably Won’t Be Nominated: Dear “PEN15” has earned a series nomination, so how about another smart, goofy comedy from Hulu? The problem facing Taika Waititi’s acclaimed ‘Reservation Dogs’ is that it premiered almost a year ago and took some patience to delve into its quiet story of a foursome of teenagers. Oklahoma natives looking to leave the reservation for California’s dream. Bonus problem: This has been a bumper year for TV comedy, and the eight nomination slots aren’t enough to honor all worthy shows.

Rejection of the finalist: I realize not everyone enjoyed the heady experience of playing Townsperson #3 in a community theater production of “The Music Man” (reviewers said our choir sang and danced with a “fervor of particular ones”), but that shouldn’t stop anyone from awarding Apple’s exuberant musical theater send-off “Schmigadoon!” (OK. It probably will. But we’ll still have “Corn Puddin.”)

Best Serial Show: ‘Black-ish’ ended its groundbreaking eight-season run in April, and it’s likely going to fail the Emmys — fittingly, considering the comedy has amassed 24 nominations, earning just one. time. (It won an honorary award for its season one episode on corporal punishment.) Likewise, “Insecure” was overlooked, only winning once out of 11 nominations… an absolute premium over “Better Things.” ” by Pamela Adlon, who only won two nominations for her star and her creator. All three series delivered beautiful send-offs that left their devoted fans smiling. It would be nice if the good feelings continue, in one form or another, when the nominations are revealed next month.

Better performance after a prolonged layoff: “Atlanta” resurfaced after four years between seasons. “Barry” was back after a three-year hiatus. The shows approached their third seasons differently, with “Barry” taking a well-traced look at its title character’s attempt to atone for his past (Henry Winkler’s acting coach is also seeking redemption), and “Atlanta” embracing the surreal narrative detours that have characterized many of its best episodes. The new “Atlanta” race could be disconcerting, but it was also often extraordinary. “Barry” leaned into his darkness and yet produced some of the funniest moments of the year. (Please tell me Donut Brother Mitch actually exists. I need a sounding board!) Voters should welcome both shows with open arms.